Cox Plate Form Talk

Here it is. Rizzosbestbets full Cox Plate preview. Enjoy!

1. EL SEGUNDO (13).....$13
For
He has been there and done that and is now getting back to full strength.
Colin Little said he is prime for this and I think this is the case as well.
Will sit behind Whobe and get a gun run.

Against
He hasn't had the greatest lead in form wise.

Rizzo Says:
A massive shot. I like the $13 and will have a bit.

2. ZIPPING (2).........$13

For
Battled hard last year against Maldivian and has had some good lead in form.

Against
He is yet to win a group one.
A slow tempo could cost him.

Rizzo Says:
I think I will pass on him this year. A chance for the first fours.

3. VISION AND POWER (4)..$17

For
Has an unbelievable group one record.
Its only Vic win was at the Valley.
His Yalumba form is just as good as Whobe and HOD.

Against
Has had a quick rise to fame.
Needs it softer.


Rizzo Says:
Maybe if we get a bit of rain. Could make up the minors.


4. NOM DU JEU (5)........$81
For
Handles all ground.
Can race in various positions.
Michael Rodd.

Against
Only two three year olds have won the Cox Plate.
Is overracing a lot in its races this spring.

Rizzo Says:
Much better horses. Will pass.

5. SCENIC SHOT (6).......$17
For
Super strong horse who never gives up.
Has won at this distance in good fields.
Not bad form going into the race.
Morton has set him for this.

Against
This is an exceptionally hard field.
Couldn't back up Turnbull form last year.

Rizzo Says:
Massive each way chance. Should get a gun run and has been set for this.


6. BLACK PIRANHA (8).....$21
For
Has a group 1 win and 4 group 1 seconds to his name.
Has had a stable jockey for a long time now.
Awesome turn of foot.

Against
Port McQuarie cup form says a lot. That was its first time over 2000m.Surely it can't win a Cox Plate on that form.


Rizzo Says:
Will pass.

7. SIR SLICK (11)........$151
For
Front Runner.
Has won the most Group 1 races of this field.

Against
Is a bit of a spud in Australia.
Could be a late scratching.

Rizzo Says:
Massive Pass.

8. ROAD TO ROCK (1)......$26
For
Drawn very well and should get a good run.
Has decent form over 2000m and has run some handy races.
In form stable.

Against
History is against him with the last Epsom winner to win the cox plate going back 50 years.


Rizzo Says:
A chance for a place, won't win.

9. SPEED GIFTED (12).....$12
For
Has had a dominating win in Sydney.
Can stay all day.
Has that shaddow of unknown over him.

Against
Is set for the cup rather then the plate.

Rizzo Says:
A top 6 finish will please the connections with the plate being a good lead up for the cup.
Will pass on him for this reason.

10. WHOBEGOTYOU (10).....$2.90
For
Loves Moonee Valley.
Awesome lead up form.
Knows what it takes to win.

Against
Can't get to far back if the pace is slow.


Rizzo Says:
Can't find a reason why he will lose. Get on.

11. HEART OF DREAMS (3)..$6
For
Has great form around Whobe.
Should be able to box seat from gate 3.


Against
Has a ? over him for 2000m
Quick pace may kill off his chances.

Rizzo Says:
A massive chance, but a tad overrated. Should still run first four though.

12. ROCK KINGDOM (9).....$17
For
Has good barrier speed.
In form stable.
Decent lead up form.

Against
2000m is unknown.
Epsom form isn't the best Cox Plate Guide.

Rizzo Says:
Pass.

13. MANHATTAN RAIN (14)...$21
For
Gun three year old.
Third up and ready to peak.

Against
Outside gate hurts which will make it hard to cross.
Hasn't shown any indication that he can hit the line hard over the distance.

Rizzo Says:
A bit young for this. Will prefer to see him develop first. Pass.

14. SO YOU THINK (7)......$11
For
Bart Cummings.
His sire has won over this distance.
Glenn Boss.

Against
Experience?
Still learning. Green?
Has only won one race.

Rizzo Says:
Bart has it here for a reason. Top 4 chance.


Rizzo selects:
1 - Whobegotyou
2 - El Segundo
3 - Heart of Dreams
4 - Scenic Shot

Best Value
Scenic Shot & El Segundo

Biggest Flop
Speed Gifted

Biggest Talking Point
How much will Manhattan Rain be worth if he wins?

Rizzo's Speed Map
Front
Sir Slick

Manhatten Rain - Rock Kingdom

Heart of Dreams - Vision and Power - Scenic Shot

Road to Rock - Nom Du Jeu - Whobegotyou

Zipping - Speed Gifted - El Segundo

So You Think - Black Piranha

Back

Cox Plate History
* Fice winners have jumped from barrier 6 {Scenic Shot)
* Just one winner has jumped from outside barrier 11 (Speed Gifted, El Segundo, Manhatten Rain)
* The last winner to jump from barrier 1 was 20 years ago.
* 11 winners have carried the saddlecloth 1,2,3 (El Segundo, Zippping, Vision & Power)
* Nine winners have been last start winners (Speed Gifted, Whobegotyou).
* Five winners have been 6-year-old geldings (Black Pirahna, Speed Gifted.)