Preview: Melbourne Cup

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1. Viewed - $5.40

Positives
- Has done it before winning last year.
- Was awesome with Rawiller on board in the Caulfield cup.
- Has won 3/4 races over 2400m.

Negatives
- Carrying a bit of weight (58kg’s).
- Has done a bit of work racing Saturday and also in the Caulfield Cup.
- Can he get the same run on the rails if he is caught again?

Rizzo Says:
Massive chance for Viewed. I’m not totally sold that he can win but will run first four for sure. If he goes out in the betting make sure you get on but anything under $5 is unders for me.

2. Cest La Guerre - $30.00

Positives
- Ran third this time last year in the big race.
- Has been set for this.

Negatives
- Not the best lead up for this race.
- Needs a bit of rain to be any chance.

Rizzo Says:
Would need a bit of rain to be considered a first four hope. I’ll pass on this one.

3. Fiumicino - $80


Positives
- Caulfield Cup run was impressive at really big odds.
- Has big race form around him winning group races.

Negatives
- Was flogged in its only attempt over 3200m.
- Barrier is terrible and will need a lot of luck.
- Weighted.

Rizzo Says:
Just doesn’t have the form to lead into such a big race like this. He needed to show more to warrant any kind of money. Pass.

4. Master O’Reilly - $14.50

Positives
- Has been finishing off his races well.
- Looks like he needs the extra distance.
- Knows what it takes to win the race.

Negatives
- Hasn’t won since the Caulfield Cup in 2007.
- Has had multiple shots at this with no results.
- Still yet to place over two miles.

Rizzo Says:
Is in with one big show. I suspect Master O’Reilly has been primed for this and will finish off super strong. You must back it.

5. Mourilyan - $26.00

Positives
- Knows what is needed to win, having travelled to 7 other countries.
- Can run the distance.
- Has a good jockey onboard.

Negatives
- Can he adapt to 100,000 screaming people?
- Lazy?

Rizzo Says:
Nice odds with a good record over the distance. Will be in the finish, but with little exposed form it is hard to see this horse coming first. Slight first four hope.

6. Roman Emperor - $9.60

Positives
- Great lead up with a second to Viewed in the Caulfield Cup.
- Perfectly weighted for this race.
- Should make the distance.

Negatives
- Is he experienced enough to win this one?
- May need it a touch wetter then what he will get.

Rizzo Says:
This horse has the potential to be a star and I suspect it is ready to run the race of its life. Could have gotten closer to Viewed but I suspect may have been given a weight penalty if that happened. The one to beat.

7. Ista Kareem - $110

Positives
- Won the Sydney Cup over this distance.
- Can run the distance.

Negatives
- Terrible gate.
- No nine year old has won the cup.
- Looks to lack the star quality needed to win a Melbourne Cup.

Rizzo Says:
Would need the track super soft to be any real chance. No go.

8. Crime Scene - $50.00

Positives
- Jockey Kerrin McEvoy won on Brew in 2000.
- Was ok without being great in the Geelong Cup
- Has settled in well.

Negatives
- Has got all of Godolphins hopes on his back.
- Does he have the talent to win the race?
- Geelong Cup run was not good enough.

Rizzo Says:
Average Geelong Cup run where it just battled away to the line. There are better runners from the Cup that have more of a chance. Pass.

9. Munsef - $60.00

Positives
- Has won 5 races over 2400m.
- Does look to have the quality needed to win this race.
- Has adapted well.

Negatives
- Swedish lead up race?
- Will he adapt to the Australian conditions?

Rizzo Says:
Interesting form line coming from the Stockholm International. Not sure if it can with this and would be a slight chance for the first fours.

10. Zavite - $90.00

Positives
- Is experienced and can run the distance.
- Anthony Cummings as its trainer.

Negatives
- Adelaide Cup isn’t the best form over this distance.
- May not have the quality needed.

Rizzo Says:
Can’t see it being much of a threat here. Pass.

11. Alcopop - $5.90

Positives
- MASSIVE turn of foot.
- Bred to run the distance.
- It has won its last four races.

Negatives
- Inexperience. Trainer, Rider, Horse.

Rizzo Says:
Unknown quantity here with a lethal turn of foot. If he is near the front with 200m to go he will not be caught. Rate highly.

12. Harris Tweed - $180.00

Positives
- Looking for extra distance.
- Has form behind Roman Emperor.

Negatives
- Has been absolutely terrible so far.

Rizzo Says:
Newitt gave this horse the best possible chance in the Caulfield Cup and it still did nothing. Pass.

13. Kibbutz - $90

Positives
- Has not been placed in Victoria from 11 starts.
- Was favourite once for the 2008 Melbourne Cup before injury hit.

Negatives
- Hasn’t been in the best form of late.

Rizzo Says:
Is a good chance if the ground softens up. Is some super each way value if there is any give in the ground. Outside chance.

14. Newport - $48.00

Positives
- Has won over staying distances.
- Looked good on Saturday.
- Ran 10th last year.

Negatives
- Has had excuses, but form looks poor on paper.
- May need a bit of wet?

Rizzo Says:
Has had some nice runs in the lead up. Should have finished top 5 last year. Excellent each way value, first four chance.

15. Warringah - $42.00

Positives
- Waller trained.
- Looks to have some promise.
- Has what it takes to run the distance winning twice over 2300m.

Negatives
- Can he measure up when push comes to shove?

Rizzo Says:
Chris Waller has done a great job with the imports this year and Warringah could be a decent chance at each way odds. Include in trifectas.

16. Gallions Reach - $300.00

Positives
- None.

Negatives
- Is a Donkey.

Rizzo Says:
Will still be running out the 3200m on Oaks day. Massive pass.

17. Spin Around - $250.00

Positives
- None

Negatives
- Donkey

Rizzo Says:
No chance. Pass.


18. Basaltico - $38.00

Positives
- Has travelling experience.
- Can improve on his Geelong Cup run.

Negatives
- Can his run in Geelong be enough?
- Was lucky to get into the Cup in the first place.

Rizzo Says:
Was a touch unlucky in the Geelong Cup. Still is a second string stayer who may come fourth. Roughie.

19. Capecover - $100.00

Positives
- Can win in group races.
- Distance is not a problem.

Negatives
- Was smashed by Alcopop.
- Lacks the true quality.

Rizzo Says:
Needs it wetter. No chance.

20. Daffodil - $20.00

Positives
- Has shown potential in its runs here so far.
- Was eye catching with its fourth in the Caulfield Cup.
- Trainer thinks it can run the distance.

Negatives
- Has been bumped and bruised in its Caulfield Cup run.
- Average draw.

Rizzo Says:
Is getting backed at nice each way odds. Respect market moves. Chance.

21. Shocking - $11.00

Positives
- Was eye catching with its run on Saturday.
- Looks like it will run the distance.
- Mark Kavanagh

Negatives
- Quick backup.
- Was he set for this race?
- Hasn’t beaten Alcopop.

Rizzo Says:
Has drawn the wide barrier in the car park. Don’t think it has what it takes to win this. Lay.

22. Allez Wonder - $34.00

Positives
- Bart Cummings
- Good Caulfield Cup form.

Negatives
- Experience?
- Not a wet tracker.
- Distance?

Rizzo Says:
Seems better suited to the shorter races. Pass.

23. Changingoftheguard - $27.00

Positives
- Is an expensive horse.
- Has been so good so far that David Hayes decided to give it a crack at this year’s Melbourne Cup.

Negatives
- Injury troubled lead up.
- Only just starting to show promise on the track.
- Set for next year’s cup instead of this year.

Rizzo Says:
Has had a lot of trouble in the lead up to this race. Will be better suited next year. Still will give it a massive shot.

24. Leica Ding - $28.00

Positives
- Geelong Cup form generally stacks up.
- Came storming home late.
- Light weight.

Negatives
- Not as good as She’s Archie.
- Lacks that star quality.

Rizzo Says:
Feather weight who needs everything to go the right way. Outside chance for the multiples.

Rizzo Selects
1- Roman Emperor
2- Alcopop
3- Master O’Reilly
4- Viewed
5- Warringah
6- Changingoftheguard
7- Mourrlyan
8- Newport
9- Shocking
10- Kibbutz

Best Bet
6. Roman Emperor
Was sensational behind Viewed when running a close second. Is down in the weights and the 3200m looks like it will suit him. If it is a little wet he will be even closer, but at $9.60 on Betfair this horse just oozes value.

Best Lay
21. Shocking
Has the car park and must back up after Saturday. Brew was the last horse to win and follow Shocking’s route to the cup. $11 seems big unders and you should get some great value on Betfair. To join Betfair click on the banner on this page.

Best Roughie
14. Newport - $48.00
Has ran well in last year’s attempt and the lead up form has been ok. $48 seems a bit harsh and Newport presents excellent each way value.

Trifecta
1,4,6,11/1,4,6,11,15,23/1,4,5,6,11,14,15,23

Talking Points
- Are the international horses good?
- Where would have Vigor figured had he ran?
- Is Bart the master (assuming he wins the cup)?
- Alcopop (win or lose).